β Premier League 2016-17 Β· Wed, Feb 1, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 82% | 83% | 1.20 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 13% | 8.00 | fair |
| Hull win | 6% | 5% | 15.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | π¨ | Oumar Niasse Β· Hull |
| 79' | π¨ | Sam Clucas Β· Hull |
| 81' | π¨ | Lazar MarkoviΔ Β· Hull |
| 84' | π¨ | Wayne Rooney Β· Man United |
| 89' | π¨ | David Meyler Β· Hull |
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 20 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 276.00 | 31.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1737.93 | 1416.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.24 | 6.05 |
| eye test v1 | 1.68 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| league points | 41.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 15.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 77.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.81 | -0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.75 | 28.00 |
| state index | 1.09 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.39 | -0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| travel km | β | 130.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |