← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Roger East, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 42% | 37% | 2.36 | fair |
| Swansea win | 30% | 39% | 3.25 | value: +25% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.46 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Alfie Mawson · Swansea |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jack Cork · Swansea |
| 57' | ⚽ | Shane Long · Southampton |
| 70' | ⚽ | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Swansea |
| 82' | 🟨 | Federico Fernández · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 30.00 | 244.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.48 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1477.38 | 1594.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.77 | -40.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.14 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.90 | 50.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.72 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.55 |
| league points | 18.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.21 | 25.75 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.25 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 195.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |