← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 72% | 74% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 14% | 5.71 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 11% | 12% | 8.75 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | 🟨 | Jack Rodwell · Sunderland |
| 65' | 🟨 | Javier Manquillo · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 3 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 12 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| coach days | 214.00 | 945.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1448.27 | 1777.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -37.71 | 44.58 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.65 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.80 | 63.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| league points | 15.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 59.20 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 0.68 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 5.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | 1.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 25.51 |
| state index | -1.03 | 1.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | 0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 378.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |