← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 37% | 43% | 2.67 | value: +15% |
| Burnley win | 33% | 28% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | 🟨 | Matthew Lowton · Burnley |
| 87' | ⚽ | Sam Vokes · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 2 |
| 4 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| coach days | 1583.00 | 580.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| -0.60 |
| -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.24 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1476.04 | 1584.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.66 | -43.26 |
| eye test v1 | -0.07 | -0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 62.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.70 |
| league points | 26.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.80 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.84 | -1.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.38 | 28.07 |
| state index | 0.27 | -0.64 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | -1.22 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 148.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |