← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 45% | 36% | 2.18 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.36 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 26% | 36% | 3.79 | value: +36% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 46' | ⚽ | Scott Dann · Crystal Palace |
| 53' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 85' | 🟨 | Andros Townsend · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Damien Delaney · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 23 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 1583.00 | 61.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.86 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1510.67 | 1457.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.68 | -32.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.54 | -0.81 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.63 |
| league points | 26.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 8.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.81 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 29.18 |
| state index | -0.25 | -1.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.68 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 142.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |