← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 53% | 53% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Leicester win | 19% | 19% | 5.07 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | James Ward-Prowse · Southampton |
| 39' | ⚽ | Jay Rodriguez · Southampton |
| 85' | 🟨 | Wes Morgan · Leicester |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Tadić · Southampton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southampton | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.20 |
| venue | St. Mary's Stadium |
| coach days | 235.00 | 571.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1578.77 | 1600.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -42.90 | -28.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.17 | -0.37 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.30 | 64.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.70 |
| league points | 24.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -1.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.91 | 27.13 |
| state index | -0.43 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -1.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 191.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |