← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 83% | 83% | 1.18 | fair |
| Draw | 12% | 12% | 8.50 | fair |
| Hull win | 6% | 5% | 17.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Michael Dawson · Hull |
| 26' | 🟨 | Curtis Davies · Hull |
| 43' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · Chelsea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 52' | 🟨 | Andy Robertson · Hull |
| 81' | ⚽ | Gary Cahill · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Chelsea | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stamford Bridge |
| coach days | 205.00 | 21.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1787.56 | 1419.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.29 | 3.42 |
| eye test v1 | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 71.00 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| league points | 52.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 43.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.93 | -0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.68 | 28.08 |
| state index | 1.40 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 252.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.00 |