← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 22, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 81% | 79% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.55 | value: +9% |
| Burnley win | 6% | 7% | 17.00 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 58' | 🟨 | Matthew Lowton · Burnley |
| 59' | ⚽ | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 65' | 🟥 | Granit Xhaka · Arsenal |
| 74' | 🟨 | Dean Marney · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Shkodran Mustafi · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Andre Gray · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexis Sánchez · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 13 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 7419.00 | 1574.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1773.12 | 1478.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.36 | 31.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.73 | -0.63 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.75 |
| league points | 44.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 43.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | -7.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | -1.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.44 | 28.34 |
| state index | 1.16 | -0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 286.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.00 |