← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mark Clattenburg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 61% | 59% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 25% | 4.35 | value: +10% |
| Stoke win | 17% | 16% | 5.92 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Marko Arnautovic · Stoke |
| 19' | ⚽ (og) | Juan Mata · Stoke |
| 59' | 🟨 | Lee Grant · Stoke |
| 62' | 🟨 | Erik Pieters · Stoke |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 90' | ⚽ | Wayne Rooney · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 25 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1361.00 | 265.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1566.33 | 1741.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.66 | 26.25 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 1.38 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.50 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| league points | 27.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.00 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 8.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.03 | 1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 6.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| squad age | 29.89 | 27.99 |
| state index | 0.11 | 1.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 53.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |