← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 38% | 41% | 2.58 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.11 | fair |
| West Ham win | 31% | 28% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | 🟨 | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 9' | ⚽ | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
| 27' | ⚽ | Christian Stuani · Middlesbrough |
| 43' | ⚽ | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ben Gibson · Middlesbrough |
| 83' | 🟨 | Bernardo Espinosa · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonathan Calleri · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days | 1177.00 | 600.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.47 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1459.33 | 1563.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.21 | 15.65 |
| eye test v1 | -1.16 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.80 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.71 |
| league points | 20.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | 0.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.20 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.84 | 27.71 |
| state index | -0.27 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 348.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |