← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 77% | 83% | 1.27 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 15% | 11% | 6.50 | fair |
| Swansea win | 8% | 6% | 13.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Ragnar Klavan · Liverpool |
| 48' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Swansea |
| 52' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Swansea |
| 55' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 69' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 74' | ⚽ | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 478.00 | 20.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.69 | 3.48 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1731.97 | 1459.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.10 | -48.72 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.54 |
| league points | 45.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 2.14 | 0.71 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.79 | 0.60 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.30 | 27.75 |
| state index | 1.07 | -1.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.53 | 0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 209.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |