← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 38% | 38% | 2.58 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 32% | 36% | 3.02 | value: +9% |
| Draw | 30% | 26% | 3.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Mason Holgate · Everton |
| 87' | ⚽ | Séamus Coleman · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 8 |
| 8 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| coach days | 51.00 | 234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1464.87 | 1630.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.82 | 45.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.79 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.43 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.88 |
| league points | 16.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 0.76 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.46 | -0.73 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 29.37 | 26.69 |
| state index | -1.06 | 0.80 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.17 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 299.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |