← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 51% | 54% | 1.92 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 27% | 26% | 3.66 | fair |
| Watford win | 22% | 20% | 4.43 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Christian Kabasele · Watford |
| 48' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
| 64' | ⚽ | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 70' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 79' | 🟨 | Younès Kaboul · Watford |
| 82' | ⚽ | Benik Afobe · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Steve Cook · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.59 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 1573.00 | 204.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.75 | 3.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1513.41 | 1475.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.41 | -32.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 49.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| league points | 25.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.82 | 29.50 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 142.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |