← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 40% | 39% | 2.43 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 30% | 30% | 3.29 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.29 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | 🟨 | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 38' | 🟨 | Joe Ledley · Crystal Palace |
| 42' | 🟨 | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
| 68' | ⚽ | Sofiane Feghouli · West Ham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Sam Byram · West Ham |
| 79' | ⚽ | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
| 86' | ⚽ | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Manuel Lanzini · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 593.00 | 44.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1552.67 | 1475.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.66 | -24.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 22.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 72.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 43.80 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.34 | -0.83 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.16 | 28.83 |
| state index | 0.25 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.50 | -0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.17 |
| travel km | — | 16.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |