← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 42% | 36% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.14 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 27% | 35% | 3.62 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 78' | 🟨 | Stefano Okaka · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Britos · Watford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Fábio · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 197.00 | 1170.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.12 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1478.21 | 1457.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.39 | -0.07 |
| eye test v1 | -1.07 | -0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 45.80 | 64.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.91 |
| league points | 22.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 75.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 0.95 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 29.49 | 27.50 |
| state index | -0.93 | -0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 330.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |