← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stoke win | 43% | 34% | 2.27 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 29% | 41% | 3.39 | value: +37% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.51 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · Stoke |
| 22' | ⚽ | Marko Arnautovic · Stoke |
| 34' | ⚽ | Peter Crouch · Stoke |
| 40' | ⚽ | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 56' | 🟨 | Charlie Adam · Stoke |
| 62' | 🟨 | Papy Djilobodji · Sunderland |
| 72' | 🟨 | Patrick van Aanholt · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adnan Januzaj · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 11 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 197.00 | 1354.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1470.94 | 1552.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.06 | -1.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | -0.36 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | — | 67.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.65 |
| league points | 15.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 44.80 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.75 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.18 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.50 | 30.30 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.99 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 220.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |