← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 39% | 34% | 2.51 | fair |
| Hull win | 33% | 32% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.46 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | ⚽ (pen) | Junior Stanislas · Bournemouth |
| 32' | ⚽ | Abel Hernández · Hull |
| 50' | ⚽ | Abel Hernández · Hull |
| 60' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Tyrone Mings · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 13.00 | 1566.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.51 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1401.30 | 1531.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.33 | 17.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.10 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 60.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.59 |
| league points | 13.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.12 |
| season ppg | 0.65 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.82 | 0.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.96 | 26.52 |
| state index | -1.16 | -0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 349.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |