← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Jan 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 49% | 50% | 2.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.45 | fair |
| Burnley win | 23% | 24% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Maya Yoshida · Southampton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Dean Marney · Burnley |
| 68' | 🟨 | Oriol Romeu · Southampton |
| 78' | ⚽ | Joey Barton · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 20 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.19 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1566.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.60 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1466.51 | 1590.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.75 | -31.32 |
| eye test v1 | -0.72 | -0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.20 | 52.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.55 |
| league points | 23.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 64.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.40 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.76 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.72 | 25.99 |
| state index | -0.02 | -0.35 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 325.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |