← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 74% | 67% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 18% | 6.20 | value: +9% |
| Sunderland win | 10% | 15% | 10.00 | value: +49% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Jack Rodwell · Sunderland |
| 19' | ⚽ | Daniel Sturridge · Liverpool |
| 25' | ⚽ (pen) | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 30' | 🟨 | James Milner · Liverpool |
| 51' | 🟨 | Sebastian Larsson · Sunderland |
| 72' | ⚽ | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 83' | 🟨 | Adam Lallana · Liverpool |
| 83' | 🟨 | Sadio Mané · Liverpool |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 15 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 185.00 | 459.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1465.55 | 1735.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.42 | 27.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | -0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 66.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.78 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.43 | 0.65 |
| league points | 14.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.60 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 0.74 | 2.26 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | 6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.02 | 1.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.65 | 27.01 |
| state index | -0.76 | 1.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.78 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 194.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |