← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, Jan 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 35% | 27% | 2.78 | fair |
| Leicester win | 33% | 42% | 2.99 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.06 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Middlesbrough |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ben Gibson · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Clayton · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days | 1158.00 | 551.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.35 | 3.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1454.21 | 1615.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.38 | -7.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.90 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| league points | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.40 | 67.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 35.40 |
| rest days | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.72 | -2.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 27.16 |
| state index | -0.50 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -2.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 217.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |