← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Jan 1, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 62% | 61% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 21% | 4.28 | fair |
| Watford win | 15% | 17% | 6.51 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 33' | ⚽ | Harry Kane · Tottenham |
| 41' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 44' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 46' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 63' | 🟨 | Sebastian Prödl · Watford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Craig Cathcart · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Younès Kaboul · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 6 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 0 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 184.00 | 915.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.73 |
| elo | 1497.20 | 1748.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.45 | 19.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.29 | 1.98 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 67.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| league points | 22.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 83.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 61.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 14.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 22.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.36 | 1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.40 |
| squad age | 30.58 | 25.98 |
| state index | -0.40 | 1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.40 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| travel km | — | 23.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |