← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 36% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
| Swansea win | 36% | 39% | 2.75 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Sung-Yueng Ki · Swansea |
| 25' | ⚽ | Benik Afobe · Bournemouth |
| 34' | 🟨 | Jordi Amat · Swansea |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ryan Fraser · Bournemouth |
| 88' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 30.00 | 1552.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.59 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1473.74 | 1507.74 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.18 | -2.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| league points | 12.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.71 | 0.97 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.18 | 26.81 |
| state index | -0.98 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 177.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |