← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 78% | 81% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 13% | 6.30 | fair |
| Middlesbrough win | 7% | 6% | 14.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 57' | 🟨 | Daley Blind · Man United |
| 67' | ⚽ | Grant Leadbitter · Middlesbrough |
| 85' | ⚽ | Anthony Martial · Man United |
| 86' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Calum Chambers · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 32 | Shots | 9 |
| 12 | On target | 2 |
| 12 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 244.00 | 1156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.24 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1730.22 | 1456.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 39.84 | 2.71 |
| eye test v1 | 1.11 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.00 | 69.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 33.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.20 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.20 | -0.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.22 | 28.44 |
| state index | 1.26 | -0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 142.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |