← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley win | 42% | 29% | 2.33 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 31% | 3.36 | value: +3% |
| Sunderland win | 29% | 40% | 3.41 | value: +37% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Burnley |
| 42' | 🟨 | Billy Jones · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | Dean Marney · Burnley |
| 51' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Burnley |
| 53' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Burnley |
| 67' | ⚽ (pen) | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1552.00 | 183.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1453.27 | 1481.45 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.58 | -0.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | -0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 67.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.72 |
| league points | 20.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.42 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 0.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.13 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.83 | 27.15 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.34 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 136.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |