← Premier League 2016-17 · Fri, Dec 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 47% | 43% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 24% | 3.41 | fair |
| Hull win | 24% | 33% | 4.05 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Michael Dawson · Hull |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | David Marshall · Everton |
| 60' | 🟨 | Phil Jagielka · Everton |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ahmed El-Mohamady · Hull |
| 65' | ⚽ | Robert Snodgrass · Hull |
| 75' | 🟨 | Tom Davies · Everton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Hull |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ross Barkley · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 20 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 151.00 | 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.20 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1404.68 | 1596.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.84 | 16.74 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.35 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 62.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | — |
| league points | 12.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 16.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 69.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.48 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.93 | -1.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 28.60 | 27.77 |
| state index | -1.17 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | -0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 174.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |