← Premier League 2016-17 · Tue, Dec 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Michael Oliver, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 73% | 84% | 1.34 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 17% | 10% | 5.75 | fair |
| Stoke win | 10% | 7% | 10.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Jonathan Walters · Stoke |
| 34' | ⚽ | Adam Lallana · Liverpool |
| 36' | 🟨 | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 44' | ⚽ | Roberto Firmino · Liverpool |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Giannelli Imbula · Liverpool |
| 70' | ⚽ | Daniel Sturridge · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 453.00 | 1336.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1910.42 | 1744.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 4.81 | 20.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.34 | -0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 64.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| league points | 37.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.00 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 67.20 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | -3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | 2.13 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.99 | 29.21 |
| state index | 1.49 | 0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.34 | -0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 71.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |