← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mark Clattenburg, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watford win | 40% | 36% | 2.47 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 30% | 37% | 3.24 | value: +19% |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.26 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Yohan Cabaye · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jason Puncheon · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 53' | 🟨 | José Holebas · Watford |
| 70' | 🟨 | Damien Delaney · Crystal Palace |
| 71' | ⚽ (pen) | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 87' | 🟨 | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Miguel Britos · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Watford | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.20 |
| venue | Vicarage Road |
| coach days | 178.00 | 25.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1499.16 | 1490.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -26.85 | 3.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| league points | 21.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 0.88 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 30.03 | 28.95 |
| state index | -0.45 | -0.48 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 35.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |