← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 40% | 38% | 2.44 | fair |
| West Ham win | 32% | 25% | 3.11 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 37% | 3.46 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | André Ayew · West Ham |
| 50' | ⚽ | Winston Reid · West Ham |
| 78' | ⚽ | Michail Antonio · West Ham |
| 89' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Swansea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Andy Carroll · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.50 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 25.00 | 574.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.52 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1491.15 | 1552.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.00 | 11.82 |
| eye test v1 | -0.08 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.10 | 0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.80 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.52 | 0.67 |
| league points | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 75.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.62 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.29 | 27.52 |
| state index | -0.57 | -0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 273.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |