← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 81% | 78% | 1.21 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 16% | 7.65 | value: +26% |
| Sunderland win | 6% | 5% | 16.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Daley Blind · Man United |
| 39' | ⚽ | Daley Blind · Man United |
| 61' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · Sunderland |
| 82' | ⚽ | Zlatan Ibrahimović · Man United |
| 86' | ⚽ | Henrikh Mkhitaryan · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lamine Koné · Sunderland |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fabio Borini · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 26 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 239.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1725.68 | 1485.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 33.81 | -1.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.40 | -0.77 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.80 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| league points | 30.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 70.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 0.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.20 | -5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | -1.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.37 | 25.75 |
| state index | 1.08 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.44 | -1.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 171.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |