← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 70% | 69% | 1.39 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 16% | 5.05 | fair |
| Hull win | 10% | 15% | 9.60 | value: +40% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 72' | ⚽ (pen) | Yaya Touré · Man City |
| 78' | ⚽ | Kelechi Iheanacho · Man City |
| 82' | 🟨 | Ryan Mason · Hull |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Curtis Davies · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.60 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 147.00 | 178.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1410.89 | 1737.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.14 | -16.50 |
| eye test v1 | -0.01 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.48 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| league points | 12.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 65.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 2.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | 8.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 1.95 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.55 | 28.81 |
| state index | -0.94 | 0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.42 | 1.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 124.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |