← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 36% | 33% | 2.71 | fair |
| Burnley win | 33% | 31% | 2.97 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 36% | 3.18 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | 🟨 | Marten de Roon · Middlesbrough |
| 21' | 🟨 | George Boyd · Burnley |
| 31' | 🟨 | Gastón Ramírez · Middlesbrough |
| 42' | 🟨 | Ben Mee · Burnley |
| 45' | 🟨 | Antonio Barragán · Middlesbrough |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jon Flanagan · Burnley |
| 65' | 🟨 | Stephen Ward · Burnley |
| 73' | 🟨 | Andre Gray · Burnley |
| 80' | 🟨 | Fábio · Middlesbrough |
| 80' | ⚽ | Andre Gray · Burnley |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álvaro Negredo · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 6 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1547.00 | 1151.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1444.38 | 1465.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.34 | 17.83 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | -0.56 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 67.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.73 |
| league points | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.00 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.39 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 28.19 | 28.57 |
| state index | -0.55 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.77 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| travel km | — | 109.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |