← Premier League 2016-17 · Sun, Dec 18, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 80% | 81% | 1.23 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 13% | 7.10 | fair |
| Burnley win | 6% | 6% | 15.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 27' | ⚽ | Dele Alli · Tottenham |
| 28' | 🟨 | Ashley Barnes · Burnley |
| 70' | 🟨 | Moussa Sissoko · Tottenham |
| 71' | ⚽ | Danny Rose · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matthew Lowton · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 30 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | White Hart Lane |
| coach days | 901.00 | 1539.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.38 |
| elo | 1730.67 | 1446.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.12 | -20.56 |
| eye test v1 | 1.69 | -0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.30 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.75 |
| league points | 30.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 65.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.80 | 41.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.06 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.40 | -6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.52 | -1.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.70 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 28.15 |
| state index | 1.10 | -0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | -1.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 283.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |