← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Lee Mason, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 57% | 55% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.85 | fair |
| Hull win | 17% | 18% | 5.64 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · Hull |
| 36' | 🟨 | Pedro Obiang · West Ham |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 74' | 🟨 | Michael Dawson · Hull |
| 76' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 84' | 🟨 | Markus Henriksen · Hull |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 565.00 | 138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1547.96 | 1415.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.99 | -21.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.60 |
| league points | 16.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 49.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.57 | 28.28 |
| state index | -0.15 | -1.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 247.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |