← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 37% | 36% | 2.67 | fair |
| Watford win | 34% | 34% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 36' | 🟨 | Adnan Januzaj · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | Valon Behrami · Watford |
| 49' | ⚽ | Patrick van Aanholt · Sunderland |
| 75' | 🟨 | Younès Kaboul · Watford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 169.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1476.80 | 1508.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.45 | -5.41 |
| eye test v1 | -0.55 | -0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.65 |
| league points | 11.00 | 21.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.80 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.69 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.32 | -0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.19 | 29.30 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | -0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 368.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |