← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 35% | 41% | 2.82 | value: +15% |
| Stoke win | 35% | 33% | 2.82 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟥 | Jamie Vardy · Leicester |
| 38' | 🟨 | Danny Simpson · Leicester |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Bojan Krkić · Stoke |
| 43' | 🟨 | Andy King · Leicester |
| 43' | 🟨 | Islam Slimani · Leicester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marc Albrighton · Leicester |
| 45' | 🟨 | Christian Fuchs · Leicester |
| 45' | ⚽ | Joe Allen · Stoke |
| 48' | 🟨 | Glen Johnson · Stoke |
| 48' | 🟨 | Robert Huth · Leicester |
| 67' | 🟨 | Erik Pieters · Stoke |
| 74' | ⚽ | Leonardo Ulloa · Leicester |
| 88' | ⚽ | Daniel Amartey · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 9 | Corners | 9 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Stoke | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | bet365 Stadium |
| coach days | 1326.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1743.62 | 1825.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.45 | -24.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.28 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.12 | 0.94 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | 0.55 |
| league points | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 66.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.20 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | -1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 29.84 | 28.47 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | -1.78 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 80.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |