← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 46% | 40% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.33 | fair |
| Swansea win | 25% | 32% | 3.96 | value: +27% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Álvaro Negredo · Middlesbrough |
| 29' | ⚽ (pen) | Álvaro Negredo · Middlesbrough |
| 58' | ⚽ | Marten de Roon · Middlesbrough |
| 90' | 🟨 | Álvaro Negredo · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days | 1142.00 | 16.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.27 | 3.53 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1448.13 | 1508.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.99 | 7.57 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.10 | -0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 72.20 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.56 |
| league points | 15.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 51.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.66 | 28.43 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| travel km | — | 373.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |