← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jonathan Moss, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 64% | 52% | 1.54 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.44 | value: +29% |
| Crystal Palace win | 14% | 19% | 6.85 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Joel Ward · Crystal Palace |
| 22' | 🟨 | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 43' | ⚽ | Diego Costa · Chelsea |
| 60' | 🟨 | N'Golo Kanté · Chelsea |
| 82' | 🟨 | Damien Delaney · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 16.00 | 169.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1494.69 | 1775.27 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.44 | 37.90 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.20 | 71.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.92 |
| league points | 15.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.20 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 2.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.33 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 28.95 | 27.02 |
| state index | -0.43 | 1.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.88 | 0.56 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 11.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |