← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Robert Madley, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 59% | 61% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 18% | 4.00 | fair |
| Burnley win | 16% | 21% | 6.12 | value: +29% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | ⚽ | Mark Noble · West Ham |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ben Mee · Burnley |
| 72' | 🟨 | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 562.00 | 1535.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1542.01 | 1452.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.58 | -5.10 |
| eye test v1 | -0.88 | 0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.12 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.30 | 58.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | -4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 27.40 | 28.37 |
| state index | -0.59 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -1.67 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| travel km | — | 293.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |