← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 65% | 67% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 17% | 4.51 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 13% | 16% | 7.26 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Cesc Fàbregas · Chelsea |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | John O'Shea · Sunderland |
| 56' | 🟨 | Pedro · Chelsea |
| 72' | 🟨 | Fabio Borini · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Victor Moses · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 166.00 | 166.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.63 | 2.18 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1481.00 | 1771.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.81 | 43.88 |
| eye test v1 | -0.47 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 69.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.81 |
| league points | 11.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.40 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.40 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.50 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.73 | 2.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.46 | 0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.69 | 26.93 |
| state index | -0.13 | 1.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.51 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 389.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |