← Premier League 2016-17 · Wed, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 57% | 55% | 1.71 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.96 | value: +5% |
| Crystal Palace win | 18% | 19% | 5.41 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | 🟨 | Marcos Rojo · Man United |
| 45' | 🟨 | Martin Kelly · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | ⚽ | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 66' | ⚽ | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 70' | 🟨 | Paul Pogba · Man United |
| 72' | 🟨 | Damien Delaney · Crystal Palace |
| 84' | 🟨 | Marcus Rashford · Man United |
| 88' | ⚽ | Zlatan Ibrahimović · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 6 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 13.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 5.19 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1500.67 | 1708.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.09 | 28.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.19 | 1.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 64.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| league points | 15.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.80 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.92 | 1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 28.54 | 27.81 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 274.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |