← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Craig Pawson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 46% | 41% | 2.15 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 28% | 23% | 3.55 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 36% | 3.66 | value: +33% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Didier N'Dong · Sunderland |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jason Denayer · Sunderland |
| 51' | ⚽ (pen) | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Swansea |
| 54' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Swansea |
| 60' | 🟨 | Àngel Rangel · Swansea |
| 80' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 9.00 | 162.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 1.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| elo | 1506.16 | 1494.97 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.75 | 26.60 |
| eye test v1 | -0.41 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 57.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.73 |
| league points | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 71.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 36.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 0.64 | 0.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | -10.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | -1.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.02 | 27.22 |
| state index | -0.76 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 401.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |