← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Jones, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 42% | 33% | 2.35 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.32 | fair |
| Hull win | 29% | 37% | 3.40 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Robert Snodgrass · Hull |
| 26' | 🟨 | Scott Dann · Crystal Palace |
| 27' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Snodgrass · Hull |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ahmed El-Mohamady · Hull |
| 45' | 🟨 | James McArthur · Crystal Palace |
| 46' | 🟨 | Jason Puncheon · Crystal Palace |
| 52' | ⚽ (pen) | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 70' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 72' | ⚽ | Adama Diomandé · Hull |
| 78' | ⚽ | Jake Livermore · Hull |
| 79' | 🟨 | Yohan Cabaye · Crystal Palace |
| 89' | ⚽ | Fraizer Campbell · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 131.00 | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1418.99 | 1501.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.04 | -9.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.10 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| league points | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.79 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.92 | 28.65 |
| state index | -0.78 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | -0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 261.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |