← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Atkinson, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 42% | 44% | 2.35 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 31% | 27% | 3.20 | fair |
| Burnley win | 28% | 29% | 3.54 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Jeff Hendrick · Burnley |
| 16' | ⚽ | Stephen Ward · Burnley |
| 34' | 🟨 | Harry Arter · Bournemouth |
| 45' | ⚽ | Benik Afobe · Bournemouth |
| 54' | 🟨 | Scott Arfield · Burnley |
| 60' | 🟨 | Dan Gosling · Bournemouth |
| 68' | 🟨 | George Boyd · Burnley |
| 75' | ⚽ | George Boyd · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ | Charlie Daniels · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 11 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 1531.00 | 1531.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1442.11 | 1524.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.83 | -7.17 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.96 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.66 |
| league points | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.80 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.67 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 28.40 | 25.95 |
| state index | -0.67 | -0.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 340.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |