← Premier League 2016-17 · Mon, Dec 5, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Mike Dean, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough win | 51% | 47% | 1.92 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | 3.38 | fair |
| Hull win | 20% | 25% | 4.93 | value: +24% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Jake Livermore · Hull |
| 60' | ⚽ | Gastón Ramírez · Middlesbrough |
| 72' | 🟨 | Fábio · Middlesbrough |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 13 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Middlesbrough | Hull |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Riverside |
| coach days | 1130.00 | 126.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1454.06 | 1426.52 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.05 | -16.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | -0.45 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.90 | 51.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.57 |
| league points | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.92 | 0.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -5.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.27 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.64 | 27.93 |
| state index | -0.18 | -0.82 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| travel km | — | 107.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |