← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Graham Scott, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 47% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.38 | value: +3% |
| Watford win | 24% | 24% | 4.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Gareth McAuley · West Brom |
| 16' | ⚽ | Jonny Evans · West Brom |
| 34' | ⚽ | Chris Brunt · West Brom |
| 60' | ⚽ | Christian Kabasele · Watford |
| 84' | 🟨 | James McClean · West Brom |
| 84' | 🟥 | Roberto Pereyra · Watford |
| 85' | 🟨 | Troy Deeney · Watford |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matt Phillips · West Brom |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Brom | Watford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Hawthorns |
| coach days | 733.00 | 155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 1.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1535.83 | 1514.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.23 | 1.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.90 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.67 |
| league points | 17.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.40 | 71.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.15 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 30.04 | 29.55 |
| state index | 0.15 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | -0.72 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 143.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |