← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Andre Marriner, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester win | 44% | 47% | 2.25 | value: +5% |
| Sunderland win | 29% | 28% | 3.43 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 64' | ⚽ (og) | Robert Huth · Sunderland |
| 68' | 🟨 | Patrick van Aanholt · Sunderland |
| 72' | 🟨 | Sebastian Larsson · Sunderland |
| 77' | ⚽ | Jermain Defoe · Sunderland |
| 78' | 🟨 | Papy Djilobodji · Sunderland |
| 80' | ⚽ | Shinji Okazaki · Leicester |
| 81' | 🟨 | Christian Fuchs · Leicester |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Leicester |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 155.00 | 521.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.85 | 2.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1482.36 | 1635.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.73 | -23.38 |
| eye test v1 | -1.11 | -1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.20 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.47 |
| league points | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 68.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 33.00 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.62 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -13.60 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.94 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.30 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 27.66 | 28.58 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | -0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 255.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |