← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Dec 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Neil Swarbrick, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southampton win | 45% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.42 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 27% | 26% | 3.66 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 2.00 | 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1478.63 | 1644.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.96 | -12.80 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.44 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| league points | 11.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 0.85 | 1.31 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.58 | 0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.75 | 25.31 |
| state index | -1.01 | 0.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 106.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |