← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Kevin Friend, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea win | 36% | 48% | 2.72 | value: +30% |
| Crystal Palace win | 35% | 27% | 2.84 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Wilfried Zaha · Crystal Palace |
| 22' | 🟨 | Wayne Routledge · Swansea |
| 27' | 🟨 | Jack Cork · Swansea |
| 36' | ⚽ | Gylfi Sigurðsson · Swansea |
| 42' | 🟨 | Wayne Hennessey · Crystal Palace |
| 54' | 🟨 | Andros Townsend · Crystal Palace |
| 66' | ⚽ | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jason Puncheon · Crystal Palace |
| 68' | 🟨 | Martin Kelly · Crystal Palace |
| 68' | ⚽ | Leroy Fer · Swansea |
| 72' | 🟨 | Kyle Naughton · Swansea |
| 75' | ⚽ | James Tomkins · Crystal Palace |
| 82' | ⚽ (og) | Jack Cork · Crystal Palace |
| 84' | ⚽ | Christian Benteke · Crystal Palace |
| 86' | 🟨 | Jay Fulton · Swansea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yohan Cabaye · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Swansea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Fernando Llorente · Swansea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 10 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 24 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swansea | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Liberty Stadium |
| coach days | 56.00 | 695.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.17 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1505.15 | 1486.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.83 | -42.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.04 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.64 |
| league points | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.35 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.32 | 27.82 |
| state index | -0.97 | -0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.02 | -0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 267.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |