← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Anthony Taylor, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 83% | 79% | 1.19 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 15% | 9.00 | value: +39% |
| Sunderland win | 7% | 5% | 15.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 60' | 🟨 | Lamine Koné · Sunderland |
| 64' | 🟨 | John O'Shea · Sunderland |
| 67' | 🟨 | Dejan Lovren · Liverpool |
| 70' | 🟨 | Steven Pienaar · Sunderland |
| 75' | ⚽ | Divock Origi · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | James Milner · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 27 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 422.00 | 148.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -6.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 1.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1717.06 | 1487.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.45 | 1.15 |
| eye test v1 | 1.47 | -0.99 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 27.00 | 8.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 37.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.44 |
| season ppg | 2.25 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.20 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.30 | -1.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.69 | 26.02 |
| state index | 1.30 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | -1.00 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 194.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |