← Premier League 2016-17 · Sat, Nov 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Paul Tierney, England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Brom win | 34% | 43% | 2.86 | value: +23% |
| Hull win | 34% | 30% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.11 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Michael Dawson · Hull |
| 34' | ⚽ | Gareth McAuley · West Brom |
| 45' | 🟨 | Sam Clucas · Hull |
| 60' | 🟨 | Gareth McAuley · West Brom |
| 67' | 🟨 | Jonny Evans · West Brom |
| 72' | ⚽ | Michael Dawson · Hull |
| 73' | 🟨 | Adama Diomandé · Hull |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | West Brom |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 117.00 | 726.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 1.79 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1425.03 | 1537.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.59 | 18.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | -0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.39 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 66.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.70 |
| league points | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 35.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.83 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.00 | -4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.09 | -1.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.92 | 30.21 |
| state index | -1.03 | 0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -1.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 173.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |